Ezzatullah Mirzaei; elham keshavarz moghadam
Abstract
Introduction:In the Islamic Republic, a unique variant of public opinion is observed, distinct from traditional models. While existing outside the realm of power relations, this form ...
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Introduction:In the Islamic Republic, a unique variant of public opinion is observed, distinct from traditional models. While existing outside the realm of power relations, this form of public opinion lacks the connection to civil society commonly found in other contexts. Instead, it is defined by a collection of shared beliefs, attitudes, and viewpoints that are shaped independently of power dynamics, thus forming a unique, isolated public opinion within the Islamic Republic's sociopolitical landscape. The precarious state of civil society in Iran has led to it becoming a negligible factor in social and political equations and relations. Public opinion in Iran, rather than taking shape through the lens of civil society and aligning with government policies and decisions, functions as a force that is manipulated by adversaries and used as a tool to apply pressure against the Islamic Republic’s authority.Currently, the media plays a substantial role in influencing and steering public opinion. Many scholars and researchers in fields such as sociology, communication sciences, psychology, and others have posited that the media has the ability to shape its perceptions and interpretations of events to align with its preconceived biases. Consequently, media outlets often select data and scrutinize social phenomena based on these biases, and the information provided may not always accurately reflect reality but can be tainted with cultural, political, and social values and norms.Research question(s):The present research aimed at understanding the necessity of implementing social policies to manage and control Iranian public opinion. In the first stage, the study focused on identifying factors that contribute to the pessimistic outlook and confused mentality among Iranians. Subsequently, in the second stage, the research sought to analyze the meaningful relationships between causes and effects, with the objective of providing strategies in the domain of social policy. In accordance with these objectives, the research aimed to answer the following questions:What are the platforms that influence Iranian public opinion?What are the characteristics of Iranian public opinion?What strategies and tactics are implemented in the arena of managing and controlling Iranian public opinion?What capacities and constructive ideas can potentially impact Iranian public opinion?Literature Review:Given the profound and far-reaching changes and transformations experienced by human societies, the role of media, virtual space, and social networks in shaping such transformations is significant. Numerous thinkers have substantiated this assertion, as they argue that in the current era, the media serves as the primary force shaping public thoughts and minds. Disregard towards this phenomenon is considered impractical.Castells, for instance, posits that all identities are constructed, but the critical question at hand is how, from what sources, by whom, and for what purposes. Gerbner and his associates in the "cultivation theory" have attempted to address the impact of mass media, particularly television, on shaping public opinions and thoughts. Hall and J. Holley (2005) introduced the theory of "representation," which posits that in the contemporary context, mass media's audio-visual presentations have the most profound impact on shaping public culture, thoughts, and perceptions. According to this theory, mass media serve as instruments for representing the world to their audiences.The media, according to the theoretical framework of framing, does not solely function as a mirror that reflects events and the realities of the social and political world. Instead, they play a more active role in shaping social and political realities. Through their news reporting, the media influence how people perceive and understand the world around them, essentially constructing those realities. McCombs and Reynolds (2009) propose the theory of "highlighting," asserting that in the context of modern times, the media wield significant influence as a powerful factor. According to this theory, media communications and platforms play a pivotal role in the discursive processes of highlighting and marginalization. Moreover, the media are regarded as a foundational power factor in a global system that is constantly undergoing change.Methodology:This study is a descriptive-analytical research project conducted in accordance with the qualitative methodological approach, grounded in contextual theorization. It utilizes semi-structured interviews as the primary data collection technique and employs purposeful theoretical sampling to identify participants who can provide insights related to the research questions. Theoretical saturation was achieved after conducting interviews with 16 academics and experts in the fields of social sciences and communication sciences from various universities in Tehran (Tehran, Tarbiat Modares, and Khwarazmi). The interviewees comprised 13 men and 3 women, with ages ranging from 42 to 70 years.Result:Based on analysis conducted using MAXQDA software, 52 distinct concepts were identified during the initial open coding stage. These were subsequently grouped into 15 core categories during the axial coding phase. These categories can be further organized into three broader forms: platforms that shape the state of Iranian public opinion, characteristics of Iranian public opinion, and strategies and tactics employed in policy-making and public opinion management.The influence of the following platforms on Iranian public opinion is evident: a general sentiment of disappointment, a prevailing negativity, diminishing trust in official media spaces, and a decrease in their overall favorability.Several characteristics are evident in such a thought process: there is an increase in the tendency towards activism and direct action, a heightened influence of public opinion on government decision-making, a growing dissatisfaction and expression of demands shaped by virtual spaces and social media platforms, a stronger focus on political issues and concerns for security among the populace, and an increasing interest in adopting global values and norms, along with a strong influence wielded by unofficial media sources in opposition to civil society and official media channels. There is also a desire to form new social movements, particularly through acts of civil disobedience and other forms of influence. As a means of controlling public opinion, the researcher emphasized looking towards weaker and less developed neighboring countries as a cautionary tale. To manipulate public opinion in line with policy objectives, the researcher proposed strategies and tactics such as cover action, coordinated action (shaping aligned narratives), and media action. These tactics are aimed at influencing public opinion to align with policy goals and public opinion management.Discussion:In this study, the primary objectives were twofold: to gain a deeper understanding of the factors that contribute to the pessimistic outlook and confusing mindset of Iranians, and to examine the meaningful relationships between causes and effects by introducing social policy measures. It is worth noting that despite the numerous and persistent crises faced since the establishment of the Islamic Republic system, Iranian society has consistently demonstrated resilience and cooperation with the system. However, challenges and threats have emerged within society, creating wounds and uncertainties.It appears that factors such as a decrease in public trust (regarding structures, authorities, organizations, and institutions), heightened frustration and pessimism about the possibility of large-scale reform, the continued proliferation of negative news, and an escalating growth in demands that are difficult to meet in the short term are exacerbating the situation.Class divisions, continuous revelations against leaders and executive officials, an increase in the propensity for protests and a trend towards violence in these protests, the growth of political polarization, the focus of satellite and social media networks in directing public opinion, the establishment of an identity of resistance through cultural and social focus, a changing lifestyle and a rise in family breakdowns, a focus on celebrities and decreasing significance of former reference groups, and heightened external pressures have contributed to a sense of abandonment in Iran's public opinion, resulting in negative representations. When considering the nature and context of Iranian society in terms of its social, political, economic, and cultural aspects, it may be beneficial to categorize the primary and significant strategies for shaping Iranian public opinion in a positive, constructive, and hopeful direction into the following three broad categories:Several techniques have been utilized to shape public opinion: representation, framing, highlighting, and planting, which are based on the extensive use of virtual spaces and social networks. Moreover, strategies such as forming a think tank, analyzing positive narratives, and employing media actions were identified as potentially effective approaches in the realm of policymaking and public opinion management within the Iranian context. In response to the influence of the information and satellite space, public opinion might be steered in a different direction compared to that preferred by the government. It is worth noting that it is challenging to quickly overcome the enemy's soft and cognitive warfare, as this influence leverages the vast reach of virtual spaces, social networks, and satellite channels. The enemy not only seeks to impose a new lifestyle among Iranians but also employs various tactics and imagery to direct public opinion towards confrontational and oppositional stances against the government.
